South Carolina Primary Reaction: What Game Are They Playing?

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As of 12:19 AM, February 25, 2024, Donald Trump has won the South Carolina primary by about 20 points. The race was called within minutes of the polls closing in at 7:00 PM Eastern, and Trump quickly gave his campaign speech without even mentioning Nikki Haley. Haley on the other hand looked wounded by the defeat in her home state, but maintained that she would remain in the race.

Prior to the polls opening, Haley stated on national television that she “needed to do better than we did in New Hampshire,” meaning they needed to get more than 43% of the vote. Well, she ended up with 39% of the vote, but that is inconsequential. The vote is never what mattered. My honest opinion is this could have been an 80/20 split, and Haley would somehow spin it in her favor to defend herself staying in this race. There was no way she was dropping out tonight, especially with her donors continuing to throw millions of dollars her way. It has become clear that Haley believes Trump will be taken off the ballot one way or another, and also that she is not at all concerned about what the actual voters think of her. She has said on multiple occasions that she will stick around through at least Super Tuesday, so I am interested to see if there are a few court rulings finalized in the next 10 days that impact Trump in some way. She is going to be obliterated in every race she’s in, so the only question is, how long can she defend herself staying in. Do the donors know something? Why would they continue dumping money into this failed campaign? 

The next stop on the campaign trail is Michigan, but I don’t even think Haley is concerned about what happens there. She has pledged to her supporters that she’s staying through Super Tuesday, so what does it matter what happens in Michigan? The latest polls in Michigan showed Trump up around 30 points on Haley, but those were done prior to the Iowa Caucus. Still, it showed over 50% of the support coming in for Trump, and that’s when guys like DeSantis and Ramaswamy were still in the race. I would guess we see the opening polls resemble something similar to what we saw in South Carolina (60/40 split). In reality, this is clearly Trump's party, but something about the opposite sector of the party does not want to let it be.

What game are they playing?

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